Mega-Development Trends in the Amazon: Implications for Global Change

This paper describes four global-change phenomena that are having major impacts on Amazonian forests. The first is accelerating deforestation and logging. Despite recent government initiatives to slow forest loss, deforestation rates in Brazilian Amazonia have increased from 1.1 million ha yr^–1 in the early 1990s, to nearly 1.5 million ha yr^–1 from 1992–1994, and to more than 1.9 million ha yr^–1 from 1995–1998. Deforestation is also occurring rapidly in some other parts of the Amazon Basin, such as in Bolivia and Ecuador, while industrialized logging is increasing dramatically in the Guianas and central Amazonia.The second phenomenon is that patterns of forest loss and fragmentation are rapidly changing. In recent decades, large-scale deforestation has mainly occurred in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon — in the Brazilian states of Pará, Maranho, Rondônia, Acre, and Mato Grosso, and in northern Bolivia. While rates of forest loss remain very high in these areas, the development of major new highways is providing direct conduits into the heart of the Amazon. If future trends follow past patterns, land-hungry settlers and loggers may largely bisect the forests of the Amazon Basin.The third phenomenon is that climatic variability is interacting with human land uses, creating additional impacts on forest ecosystems. The 1997/98 El Niño drought, for example, led to a major increase in forest burning, with wildfires raging out of control in the northern Amazonian state of Roraima and other locations. Logging operations, which create labyrinths of roads and tracks in forsts, are increasing fuel loads, desiccation and ignition sources in forest interiors. Forest fragmentation also increases fire susceptibility by creating dry, fire-prone forest edges.Finally, recent evidence suggests that intact Amazonian forests are a globally significant carbon sink, quite possibly caused by higher forest growth rates in response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ fertilization. Evidence for a carbon sink comes from long-term forest mensuration plots, from whole-forest studies of carbon flux and from investigations of atmospheric CO₂ and oxygen isotopes. Unfortunately, intact Amazonian forests are rapidly diminishing. Hence, not only is the destruction of these forests a major source of greenhouse gases, but it is reducing their intrinsic capacity to help buffer the rapid anthropogenic rise in CO₂.     

Using environmental stressor information to predict the ecological status of Maryland non-tidal streams as measured by biological indicators

In Maryland, U.S., an interim framework has recentlybeen developed for using biologically based thresholds, or `biocriteria', to assess the health of nontidal streams statewide at watershed scales. The evaluation of impairment is based on indices of biological integrity from the Maryland Biological Stream Survey (MBSS). We applied logistic regression to quantify how the biotic integrity of streams at a local scale is affected by cumulative effects resulting from catchment land uses, point sources, and nearby transmission line rights-of-way. Indicators for land use were developed from the remote sensing National Land Cover Data and applied at different scales. We determined that the risk of local impairment in nontidal streams rapidly increases with increased urban land use in the catchment area. The average likelihood of failing biocriteria doubled with every 10% points increment in urban land, thus an increase in urban land use from 0 to 20% quadruples the risk of impairment. For the basins evaluated in this study, catchments with more than 40–50% urban land use had greater than 80% probability of failing biocriteria, on average. Inclusion of rights-of-way and point sources in the model did not significantly improve the fit for this data set, most likely because of their low numbers. The overall results indicate that our predictive modeling approach can help pinpoint stream ecosystems experiencing or vulnerable to degradation.     

国外城市自然保护与生态重建及其对我国的启示

论文对当前国外的城市自然保护与生态重建活动作了介绍。城市自然保护包括野生生物生境保护、城市地区湿地及自然景观保护等内容。城市生态重建则主要有生态公园建设、废弃地生态重建、城市扩散廊道体系建设等方面。城市自然保护与生态重建具有以生态学为基础,多学科交叉;注重生态过程的恢复;多目标、多层次规划设计的特点。在此基础上,论文给出了4点对于我国城市生态建设的启示。     

关注全球气候变化,提高抵御气候灾害的能力

我国是个受全球季风气候影响较大的国家。受全球气候变暖的影响,云南梅里雪山的明永冰川已发生后退现象,西双版纳也已出现一些变化的前兆。为维护生态安全,云南省应统筹好人与自然和谐相处的关系,防止人为决策失误造成的区域性生态系统结构的破坏,同时要加强有关气候变化对云南影响的预警研究。     

Climate Change Policy in European Countries and its effects on industry

In this paper we discuss the effects ofdifferent climate change policies onindustrial activity and on welfare. Wecompare the effects of carbon taxes andgrandfathered permits and the effects ofexemptions for energy-intensive industries.We survey first the insights from economictheory and from model experiments for theUS. Next we use a general equilibrium modelto assess the effect of different climatechange policies on industrial activity persector and per member country in the EU. Wepay particular attention to the effects ofpolicies where one EU member state exemptsits energy-intensive sectors from abatementefforts. The main findings are that, in theEU, the effects on industrial activity andthe welfare costs of tradable permits orcarbon taxes are small when no industrialsectors are exempted. When one membercountry exempts its energy intensivesector, this will reduce somewhat theimpact on its activity level but willgenerate an extra welfare cost for theEU.     

城市水业投资模式及BOT模式操作要点

水务行业特许经营在今后一定时间内是解决城市基础设施建设的主要手段之一.它能够解决城市基础设施投资资金短缺的问题;实现基础设施行业投资结构多元化,促进体制改革;引入竞争机制,提高服务质量;引入先进技术与科学的管理手段,提高经营管理效率.本文主要介绍了城市水业投资的模式及其适用条件,并以案例分析的方式讨论了BOT模式的操作要点.     

飞机实验室气候试验风险识别及分析

目的 研究飞机实验室气候试验过程中风险的识别及分析问题.方法 根据飞机实验室气候试验流程,针对试验设计、试验准备、试验实施和试验确认等阶段进行风险识别和分析.结果 及结论识别并分析出实验室气候试验各阶段的风险,并在国内首次某民机实验室气候试验中得到应用.     

加强城市灾害应急管理能力建设确保城市的可持续发展

本文通过对我国城市化与经济发展的关系,分析了我国城市面临的灾害形势及城市应急管理中存在的问题,提出了加强城市应急能力建设的途径,可供国内各大中城市参考和借鉴.     

Geological CO2 Storage as a Climate Change Mitigation Option

Carbon dioxide (CO₂₎ capture and storage is increasingly being considered as an important climate change mitigation option. This paper explores provisions for including geological CO₂ storage in climate policy. The storage capacity of Norway's Continental Shelf is alone sufficient to store a large share of European CO₂ emissions for many decades. If CO₂ is injected into oil reservoirs there is an additional benefit in terms of enhanced oil recovery. However, there are significant technical and economic challenges, including the large investment in infrastructure required, with related economies of scale properties. Thus CO₂ capture, transportation and storage projects are likely to be more economically attractive if developed on a large scale, which could mean involving two or more nations. An additional challenge is the risk of future leakages from storage sites, where the government must take on a major responsibility. In institutional and policy terms, important challenges are the unsettled status of geological CO₂ storage as a policy measure in the Kyoto Protocol, lack of relevant reporting and verification procedures, and lack of decisions on how the option should be linked to the flexibility mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol. In terms of competitiveness with expected prices for CO₂ permits under Kyoto Protocol trading, the relatively high costs per tonne of CO₂ stored means that geological CO₂ storage is primarily of interest where enhanced oil recovery is possible. These shortcomings and uncertainties mean that companies and governments today only have weak incentives to venture into geological CO₂ storage.     

UASB处理低浓度城市生活污水的中试试验

研究1·2m3厌氧反应器(UASB),在自然温度(水温32~5℃)下,处理CODCr浓度为200mg/L左右的低浓度生活污水。实验采用颗粒污泥接种二次启动法。水处理系统在水温32~5℃范围内运行6个月的时间,UASB反应器在上升流速为1·4~1·7m/h,水力停留时间(HRT)为3·0~2·5h,CODCr有机污泥负荷(SLR)为0·06~0·13kg/(kg·d)时,去除效率比较稳定,CODCr去除率达40%~80%。